77 Years after World War Two; time for European Security Independence?
by Dieter Egli,* USA
(30 May 2022) As we mark the 77th anniversary of the victory of Allied troops over Nazi Germany, the United States still has tens of thousands of troops stationed in Europe. If the events of the past two decades are any indication, it seems clear that this holdover of WWII has had unwelcome consequences for both Europe and also the USA, and should raise additional considerations for all in ending the war in Ukraine.
In recent decades, European NATO members have supported US-led interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria, often despite protests from their own citizens. The result of these wars was thoroughly negative for Europe: destabilized states in its vicinity, lost lives, destroyed economies, refugees facing new challenges far from their homes, high costs without the hoped-for outcomes, and internal tensions.
All of this without even mentioning the impact on the lives of people in affected countries. While the context of the situation in Ukraine is different from that of Iraq or Afghanistan, these crises have shared consequences.
Now, Europe again follows the lead of the USA in Ukraine, hoping for a better outcome. A long conflict and further escalation loom ahead. Protected by two oceans, the USA may feel safer in its course of action; it is the Old Continent for whom this conflict will harbor the greatest risks and consequences.
In the events leading up to the war, the US led efforts to integrate Ukraine into NATO. Much has already been written, in particular by Andrew Day1 and John Mearsheimer,2 that the alignment of Ukraine with NATO, carried out despite initial objections by France and Germany, provided Russia with a direct impetus to invade Ukraine. Europeans, on their own could have approached a possible integration of Ukraine into an alliance in a different manner.
The question therefore arises as to why Europe does not have its own independent security structure adapted to its own interests. Military supremacy of US forces in Europe takes away the necessity. It creates dependence on America and leads Europe to align itself with US foreign policy and interests.
US military involvement fundamentally changes any security problem, bringing US rivalries and interests into Europe. It places regional differences into the context of a global rivalry. The result is a deeply divided European continent, which includes Ukraine, as well as Russia and Belarus.
At present, with every EU arms shipment and sanctions package, the divide is deepening further and dependence upon the US is increasing. As the situation currently stands, the end of the conflict and the integrity and autonomy of Ukraine may be more difficult and more painful to achieve in a dependent Europe.
The security structure still in place 77 years after the end of World War II now seems to be working against all involved, including against US citizens. It impedes shifting resources to American infrastructure and equality in education and access to health care.
Dependent allies fail to provide effective checks and balances on US military activities across the globe that many in even the US have come to regret. Presidents from both major political parties, including President Obama and President Trump were elected on a platform to focus on the USA, and move away from international interventions. During the Trump administration, withdrawing troops from Germany3 and withdrawing from NATO4 was considered. President Biden canceled5 this plan last year.
It may seem paradoxical at a time of conflict, but well worth considering whether withdrawing US troops from Europe could recalibrate positions and ease tensions. As to the argument that Europeans are either incapable or unwilling to cooperate and defend themselves, it is an obstacle to move past a history of conflicts between European Nations.
The world needs the voice of an independent Europe – this would be a win for all: for the autonomy and interests of Europe, for the domestic interests of US voters, and to reset relations in Eastern Europe.
The withdrawal of the US military, in particular from Germany, could help make this possible. Germany holds the key to establish a new balance – unlike the USA, Russia withdrew their forces from Germany at the end of the Cold War, paving the way for the reunification of East and West Germany.
Imagine a European military base on US soil – this would be unthinkable for the USA. Americans know that security independence is indispensable. For Europe to develop its own security structure, adapted to all countries of the continent, separation from the US military would be the sine qua non. The idea of European security cooperation independent of the USA has existed since the 1950’s, but never grew far enough. One can only hope that the Ukraine crisis will provide the critically needed momentum for a new European security arrangement6 as proposed by French President Macron, and reduce, rather than increase European dependence on the USA.
When leaders of Sweden and Finland visited the White House last week [19 May], President Biden stated that “a strong united NATO is the foundation for America’s security.” America might feel safer with allies in between them and their global rivals, but thereby these allies also assume new risks that increase dependence and that affect relations with their neighbors. With deepening security dependence on the US, Europe also risks not having an independent voice in Asia.
A global NATO is being discussed and extension into the Pacific7 to contain China. Embracing autonomy of European security may be the only effective tool that can prevent escalation encouraged by a dependent collective. If Ukraine serves as a warning sign, then now is the opportunity to question post-war institutions and to begin a discussion about the critical importance of European security independence.
| * Dieter Egli, born in 1974, is Swiss-American, received a PhD from the University of Zurich and is a Scientist and Professor at Columbia University Medical Center, New York City, USA. |
1 https://theweek.com/nato/1013153/shut-natos-door-to-ukraine-permanently?amp
3 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53589245
4 https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/14/us/politics/nato-president-trump.html
5 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/04/us/politics/biden-germany-troops-trump.html
6 https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2022/01/its-macrons-moment-move-europe-beyond-nato/361163/